Cursory discussions with young project managers reveal a simple yet concerning fact. Most project managers are aware of the need to identify and manage project risks and most will be aware of the need to establish and publish a project risk register. That’s the good news. Where most inexperienced project managers fail is in their lack of understanding of the need to rigorously manage project risks arising inherently from their project schedule.
A short example can illustrate the issue quite clearly. Assume your project has 5 tasks, each estimated with a confidence level of 90%. Based on the above, would you say that your overall chances of meeting your project target delivery date are 90%? You might intuitively say ‘Yes’ but then you’ll be wrong. The correct answer is actually less than 60% (being the product of the following calculation: 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.59). So, in this example, if you were confidently managing your project, expecting a very high chance of meeting your deadline, you could be up for a surprise when some of the odds start playing against you.